Founders Financial https://foundersfinancial.com/ RIA/BD dedicated to serving financial advisors Wed, 23 Jul 2025 13:34:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://foundersfinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/cropped-cropped-FF_favicon-50x50.png Founders Financial https://foundersfinancial.com/ 32 32 Quarterly Market Review and Outlook July 2025 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/quarterly-market-review-and-outlook-july-2025/ Wed, 23 Jul 2025 13:09:37 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=4115 Market Review & Outlook From Post “Liberation Day” Crash to Record Highs Financial Markets Took Investors on a Roller Coaster Ride in the Second Quarter After plummeting nearly 19% in response to the larger-than-expected tariffs announced by President Trump on “Liberation Day”, the S&P 500 staged an historic rally and rebounded over 20% in only […]

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Market Review & Outlook

From Post “Liberation Day” Crash to Record Highs

Financial Markets Took Investors on a Roller Coaster Ride in the Second Quarter
After plummeting nearly 19% in response to the larger-than-expected tariffs announced by President Trump on “Liberation Day”, the S&P 500 staged an historic rally and rebounded over 20% in only 54 trading days, finishing the second quarter at record highs. Despite the onslaught of newsworthy headlines that captured the attention of investors from tariffs to Iran to another U.S. government debt downgrade, markets climbed the proverbial wall of worry with the S&P 500 rising nearly 11% in Q2 and posting a 6% gain for the first half of the year.

The second quarter was a textbook case study in the importance of investors staying disciplined and avoiding the perils of market timing (see chart below).

Maintain Discipline: Missing the Best Days Can Prove Costly Over the Long Term

Financial Market Gains Were Broad-Based in Q2 with Some Notable Changes from Last Quarter

Long-maligned international stock markets once again outperformed their U.S. counterparts as investors gravitated to the relative stability of international equity markets. International markets have also benefitted from a weakening U.S. dollar with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declining nearly 11% in the first half of the year.

In a notable reversal from Q1, U.S. growth stocks sharply outperformed their value counterparts during the quarter with the Russell 1000 Growth index rising nearly 18% compared to a less than 4% rise in the Russell 1000 Value index. The mega cap U.S. technology darlings (aka Magnificent 7) that dragged the market lower in Q1 rallied sharply in Q2, leading U.S. stock market indices higher.

Fixed income markets rose modestly in Q2 but meaningfully lagged the gains in global equity markets. Through the first half of the year, bond markets have been a relative source of calm amid the volatility in stock markets. Interest rates remain elevated relative to recent history but have been mostly rangebound despite concerns about the long-term impact of rising fiscal deficits in the U.S. and uncertainty around the timing of the next move to lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Investment Outlook

With so many geopolitical crosscurrents confronting investors of late, how have global equity markets defied the odds, with many setting record highs last quarter?

Despite the political headlines and tariff-induced uncertainty, the U.S. economy and corporate earnings have remained resilient. Although U.S. GDP modestly declined in Q1, largely driven by a tariff-induced rise in imports, consumer spending has remained resilient. Businesses have proven nimble and so far seem to have weathered the tariff uncertainty by protecting margins and continuing to grow the bottom line.

Inflation has continued to moderate, setting the stage for easier monetary policy from global central banks, which has eased financial conditions and supported financial asset prices. Many major central banks have meaningfully reduced interest rates in 2025, including the ECB. While the Fed has been on hold due to uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and fiscal spending on inflation, market expectations are that the Fed will resume lowering interest rates later this year. Core PCE inflation, which is the index most closely monitored by the Fed, rose 2.7% YOY in May and is nearing the Fed’s 2% target.

During the quarter, the spotlight shifted from the uncertainty of tariffs as a potential headwind to economic growth to expectations of tax cuts and increased fiscal spending in the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” to be a potential tailwind for economic growth.

With equity markets again ascending to record highs, what potential risks should investors be monitoring as we enter the second half of 2025?

⚫ Tariffs – While the view has seemingly taken hold among investors that President Trump’s tariff policy is just a negotiating tactic, there is still much potential uncertainty ahead with the 90-day pause soon set to expire and current U.S. tariff rates already the highest in generations.

⚫ Fiscal Deficits, Debt, & Interest Rates – With the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” likely, the record
U.S. fiscal deficit is set to expand further and will likely increase an already significant debt load for the U.S. government. The key question for investors is when these trends will reach a tipping point that could result in a sharp rise in interest rates that would destabilize the all-important U.S. Treasury market.

⚫ The Federal Reserve – With President Trump’s continued pressure on Chair Powell and the Fed to lower interest rates, concerns are rising about the sustainability of the Fed’s independence and the uncertainty that may result when Powell’s term as chairman ends next year.

What’s an investor to do in these uncertain times?

Forecasting economic and market outcomes is notoriously difficult and unreliable, and it is often more helpful to use history to instruct our outlook and actions. While the temptation of assuming this time is different has often led investors to allow emotions to dictate their short-term investment decisions, history has consistently demonstrated the long-term detriment of doing so.

Maintain Discipline & Avoid the Temptation to Time Markets – History shows that investors are poor market timers and that trying to sell assets at the peak or buy at the bottom is usually a losing game. History has also shown that gains in positive years for markets have outweighed the drag caused by negative years, allowing long-term, disciplined investors to grow their investments over time.

Don’t Let Short-Term Emotions Disrupt Your Long-Term Plan – Although the current environment is fraught with uncertainty for investors, the stock market has continued to grow over the long term despite countless crises and unexpected events over the course of time. While history does not repeat, it does often rhyme.

Don’t Let Politics Drive Your Investment Decisions – It’s time in the market, not the president’s political party, that matters over the long term.

Finally, engage with your financial advisor and stay focused on your long-term financial plan.

Want to learn more? Discover more from the FCMS Investment Committee by subscribing to our Founders Insights blog and following us on LinkedIn.

 

Authored by the Freedom Capital Management Strategies® Investment Team | July 2025

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor.

This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of Founders Financial Securities, LLC and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The post Quarterly Market Review and Outlook <br>July 2025 appeared first on Founders Financial.

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Quarterly Market Review and Outlook April 2025 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/quarterly-market-review-and-outlook-april-2025/ Thu, 10 Apr 2025 15:30:53 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=4064 Market Review & Outlook U.S. stock markets lay an egg in the first quarter U.S. stock market investors entered 2025 optimistic after two years of 20%+ returns for the S&P 500, expecting strong gains to continue and broaden in 2025 due to President Trump’s seemingly business-friendly policy plans (i.e., tax cuts and deregulation). Unfortunately, these […]

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Market Review & Outlook

U.S. stock markets lay an egg in the first quarter

U.S. stock market investors entered 2025 optimistic after two years of 20%+ returns for the S&P 500, expecting strong gains to continue and broaden in 2025 due to President Trump’s seemingly business-friendly policy plans (i.e., tax cuts and deregulation). Unfortunately, these optimistic expectations fell through as U.S. stock markets suffered their worst quarter since 2022, with the S&P 500 declining -4.3%, the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 falling -8.1%, and small caps stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, declining -9.5%. There was nowhere to hide for domestic stock market investors in the first quarter. Additionally, at the time of this writing in early April, the U.S. stock market sell-off has gathered significant momentum with the NASDAQ 100 entering a bear market (meaning a 20% decline from its recent peak) and the S&P 500 nearing this point, too. In contrast, international stock markets broadly had a positive first quarter, which is discussed in more detail below.

What caused the disconnect between U.S. investors’ lofty expectations entering 2025 and disappointing results so far?

  • First and foremost, President Trump’s aggressive policy agenda has triggered a sharp rise in uncertainty, especially surrounding disruptive tariff policies and geopolitical overtures seemingly intent on radically changing the global world order that has been in place for a generation. Markets were caught off guard by the President prioritizing the more disruptive elements of his policy agenda for the economy and markets, while focusing less on the more market-friendly policies of tax cuts and deregulation.
  • Alongside the policy-induced rise in uncertainty, U.S. economic growth has shown recent signs of decelerating, albeit from strong levels, leading to renewed concerns about recession risk. Worries aboutinflation also resurfaced among consumers and businesses amid tariff-induced uncertainty and scarsfrom the sharp rise in price levels just a couple of years ago.

Long-maligned international stocks shine despite turbulence in U.S. stock markets

Investors had seemingly given up on the prospects for international stocks after 15 years of lackluster results and expectations for additional challenges from President Trump’s America-first policy agenda. Seemingly out of nowhere, international developed and emerging equity market indices generated strong gains and handily outperformed their U.S. counterparts in Q1 with the MSCI World ex-USA index rising 6.2% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index gaining 2.9%.

Developed markets were buoyed by Europe where political developments in Germany led to a dramatic shift in policy with legislation passed to significantly increase government spending on defense and infrastructure, leading to higher growth expectations in Germany and Europe more broadly.

Emerging markets were led higher by China where technology stocks rose sharply higher in the wake of the DeepSeek AI announcement in January that challenged the market consensus that U.S. technology companies had already won the AI race.

 

Bonds return to their traditional role as a safe haven in volatile times

Bond investors have grown weary in recent years after suffering historic losses in 2022 and struggling to regain ground ever since. However, amid the market turmoil in the first quarter, bonds returned to their traditional role of providing ballast to investor portfolios during turbulent times. The benchmark Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 2.8% as interest rates declined in response to rising uncertainty and concerns about the economic outlook. Historically safe U.S. Treasuries also outperformed high-yield corporate bonds as credit spreads widened in response to investor concerns about rising risks to the economic outlook.

Investment Outlook

In our annual letter in January we wrote:

“There is still much to be determined regarding which policy proposals are prioritized, when and how they will be implemented, and the ultimate impact they will have on the economy and financial markets. While the trajectory of markets in 2025 is unknown, we believe the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the policy proposals of the Trump administration combined with an elevated level of investor optimism calls for increased prudence.”

The investment landscape has shifted dramatically since we wrote this three months ago. With the investor sentiment pendulum now having swung sharply from optimism to pessimism in response to President Trump’s tariff announcements and the uncertainty surrounding them, what should investors be watching going forward?

Will the sharp decline in survey measures of consumer and business sentiment (“soft data”) translate to weakness in consumer spending and corporate earnings (“hard data”)?

Surveys of consumer and business sentiment regarding the economic outlook have plummeted amid elevated economic uncertainty and financial market volatility. To date, the weakness in these “soft data” measures has not led to broader weakness in economic activity with consumer spending, the job market, and corporate earnings remaining resilient. The big question for investors is whether the increasingly pessimistic views among consumers and businesses will eventually lead to a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment that ultimately tip the U.S. economy into recession.

What does the Federal Reserve (Fed) do next?

One of the key reasons investors entered 2025 optimistic was in response to the Fed finally beginning to loosen monetary policy in late 2024 with a series of interest rate cuts and expectations that the policy easing would continue this year. However, the Fed has paused their interest rate cutting campaign in 2025 in response to stubbornly elevated inflation and concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation outlook. A less accommodative Fed has the potential to cause further indigestion for financial markets.

 

WHAT’S AN INVESTOR TO DO IN THESE UNCERTAIN TIMES?

Forecasting economic and market outcomes is notoriously difficult and unreliable, and it is often more helpful to use history to instruct our outlook and actions. While the temptation of assuming this time is different has often led investors to allow emotions to dictate their short-term investment decisions, history has consistently demonstrated the long-term detriment of doing so.

  • Maintain Discipline & Avoid the Temptation to Time Markets – History shows that investors are poor market timers and that trying to sell assets at the peak or buy at the bottom is usually a losing game. History has also shown that gains in positive years for markets have outweighed the drag caused by negative years, allowing long-term, disciplined investors to grow their investments over time. See Figure 1 below.
  • Don’t Let Short-Term Emotions Disrupt Your Long-Term Plan – Although the current environment is fraught with uncertainty for investors, the stock market has continued to grow over the long term despite countless crises and unexpected events over the course of time. While history does not repeat, it does often rhyme. See Figure 2 overleaf.
  • Don’t Let Politics Drive Your Investment Decisions – It’s time in the market, not the president’s political party, that matters over the long term. See Figure 3 overleaf.

Finally, engage with your financial advisor and stay focused on your long-term financial plan. During periods of heightened uncertainty, it is critical to avoid making short-term decisions driven by fear. Investing can be a challenging endeavor that requires enduring temporary pain to reap long-term reward.

 

 

 

Discover more from the FCMS Investment Committee by subscribing to our Founders Insights blog and following us on LinkedIn.

 

Authored by the Freedom Capital Management Strategies® Investment Team | January 2025

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor.

This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of Founders Financial Securities, LLC and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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FCMS Market NotesJanuary 9 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/fcms-market-notesjanuary-9/ Thu, 09 Jan 2025 14:01:18 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3773 The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments. Read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives → To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information. To learn more […]

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The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments.

Read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives →


To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information.

To learn more about FCMS Investment Management, click here.

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC (FFS). Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of FFS, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device. Index information is intended to be indicative of broad market conditions. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investors should consult their financial, tax, and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with FFS. © 2022 Horizon Investments, LLC.

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Quarterly Market Review and Outlook January 2025 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/quarterly-market-review-and-outlook-january-2025/ Wed, 08 Jan 2025 23:44:19 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3770  Market Review & Outlook U.S. stock markets prove exceptional, again. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter and extended its gains to 25% for the full year.  The strength in U.S. stock markets last year meaningfully surpassed even the most optimistic forecasts from market prognosticators a year ago. 2024 was […]

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Market Review & Outlook

U.S. stock markets prove exceptional, again.

The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter and extended its gains to 25% for the full year.  The strength in U.S. stock markets last year meaningfully surpassed even the most optimistic forecasts from market prognosticators a year ago. 2024 was the second consecutive year in which the S&P 500 rose by more than 20%, which is an infrequent occurrence that last happened in the late 1990s.

U.S. equities were buoyed in 2024 by a strong economy and moderating inflation. The U.S. economy has proven surprisingly resilient in recent years and has been a beacon of strength globally. A robust job market has supported U.S. consumers who have been the engine of U.S. economic growth. Inflation also moderated meaningfully last year, allowing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin cutting interest rates, which also benefitted U.S. stock markets.

International stock markets fail to impress, yet again.

It was a less rosy picture for international equity markets last year, which once again meaningfully lagged their U.S. counterparts. This has been a pronounced trend over the past 15 years that seems unlikely to reverse course in the near term with fundamental weakness oversees and the strong momentum in the U.S. economy described above.

Europe and China are the two largest economies behind the U.S. globally and both have been struggling of late. Europe has been beset by slow growth resulting from weak demographic and productivity trends and seemingly lacks the economic dynamism of the U.S. China has been ailing from a deflating property market bubble similar to what the U.S. experienced during its financial crisis over 15 years ago. With both Europe and China struggling while the U.S. economy has been strong, it is no surprise that international equity markets have continued to underwhelm.

Bond markets continue to languish.

Bond investors entered 2024 optimistic with the expectation that declining interest rates would finally awaken bond markets from their multi-year malaise. However, the hope for a sharp decline in interest rates proved premature as the Fed cut shortterm interest rates by much less than expected and long-term interest rates, as measured by the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, actually increased on the year. The result was a paltry gain of 1.25% for the benchmark Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index, which paled in comparison to  the exceptional gains in U.S. stock markets.

Investment Outlook

U.S. investors are entering 2025 with a high level of optimism, but they will likely need to navigate some changes in the new year with President Trump’s return to the White House.

Optimism is elevated among U.S. investors, which has set a high bar for the economy and markets in 2025.

It is no surprise that U.S. investors are generally quite optimistic at the outset of the new year. The U.S. economy is strong with robust growth, low unemployment, and moderating inflation. U.S. stock markets have also delivered exceptional gains of late.

As usual, great results come with great expectations, and investors are expecting a lot from U.S. stocks in 2025.

  • Corporate earnings expected to be exceptional
    According to FactSet, the consensus forecast is for S&P 500 companies to collectively grow their earnings by 15% in 2025. This is nearly double the average rate of earnings growth over the past 10 years and has set a high bar for U.S. companies.
  • U.S. stocks are richly valued
    By most measures, the S&P 500 is historically expensive, suggesting that a lot of good news is being priced into markets. For example, the S&P 500 currently trades for nearly 22x forward earnings. This is well above the 17x forward earnings that the index has averaged over the past 30 years (J.P. Morgan Asset Management).

Elevated optimism alone does not indicate that stocks markets are set for an imminent decline. However, it has historically been a signal that risk levels have risen for investors and that markets are not currently focused on (or priced to reflect) potential risks on the horizon.

Change is on the horizon with President Trump’s return to the White House, and the impact on the economy and markets remains a key question for investors in 2025. 

Markets initially reacted to President Trump’s re-election by following the playbook of what worked for investors during his first term – U.S. stock markets gained, international stock markets declined, and bond markets declined as interest rates rose. However, the state of the U.S. economy today is markedly different than in 2017 (the beginning of Trump’s first term).

  • Today, U.S. economic growth is strong, interest rates are relatively high, and we have recently emerged from a multi-year period of high inflation.
  • In 2017, U.S. economic growth was weak, interest rates were low, and inflation was low and stable.

The key question for investors is how the expected policy changes of Trump 2.0 will affect the economy and markets considering the state of the economy today compared to 8 years ago.

  • An optimistic perspective is that his proposals for deregulation and tax cuts will lead to an acceleration in economic growth through improved productivity by reducing red tape and increasing business confidence and investment.
  • A pessimistic perspective is that his proposed changes to trade and immigration policies will disrupt the flow of goods, services, and labor leading to another wave of inflation, which combined with the expected expansion in the fiscal deficit based on his policy proposals could lead to a sharp increase in interest rates.

There is still much to be determined regarding which policy proposals are prioritized, when and how they will be implemented, and the ultimate impact they will have on the economy and financial markets. While the trajectory of markets in 2025 is unknown, we believe the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the policy proposals of the Trump administration combined with the elevated level of investor optimism discussed above calls for increased prudence.

As always, we encourage investors to stay focused on their long-term plans by remaining disciplined, staying diversified, and engaging with their financial advisors.

Discover more from the FCMS Investment Committee by subscribing to our Founders Insights blog and following us on LinkedIn.

 

Authored by the Freedom Capital Management Strategies® Investment Team | January 2025

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor.

This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of Founders Financial Securities, LLC and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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FCMS Market NotesDecember 5 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/fcms-market-notesdecember-5/ Thu, 05 Dec 2024 14:50:03 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3687 The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments. Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives. To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information. To […]

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The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments.

Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives.

To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information.

To learn more about FCMS Investment Management, click here.

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC (FFS). Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of FFS, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device. Index information is intended to be indicative of broad market conditions. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investors should consult their financial, tax, and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with FFS. © 2022 Horizon Investments, LLC.

The post FCMS Market Notes<br>December 5 appeared first on Founders Financial.

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Quarterly Market Review and Outlook October 2024 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/quarterly-market-review-and-outlook-october-2024/ Wed, 13 Nov 2024 16:48:32 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3679 Market Review & Outlook Despite some turbulence, U.S. equity markets extended their strong gains during Q3 and finished the quarter near record highs. The S&P 500 rose by 5.9% in Q3 and extended its gains to 22% through the first nine months of the year. Although equity markets finished on a strong note, there was […]

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Market Review & Outlook

Despite some turbulence, U.S. equity markets extended their strong gains during Q3 and finished the quarter near record highs.

The S&P 500 rose by 5.9% in Q3 and extended its gains to 22% through the first nine months of the year. Although equity markets finished on a strong note, there was a sharp pullback in stock prices earlier in the quarter due to concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market and volatility around the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade. This pullback was short lived as the U.S. economy once again proved more resilient than feared and the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered on a widely anticipated interest rate cut.

There was a notable broadening in equity markets during Q3, which was a welcome development for investors after the very narrow gains in Q2. U.S. small cap and international stock market indices outperformed their U.S. large cap counterparts for the first time in a while in Q3. This was a sharp reversal from the Q2 results where a small group of dominant U.S. technology stocks, popularly referred to as the Magnificent 7, saw strong gains while most stocks in U.S. and international markets struggled. Of note, international equity markets benefited from a recently announced package of stimulus measures from the Chinese government that pushed Chinese stock prices sharply higher at the end of the quarter. Investors generally view the recent broadening of market gains as a bullish signal that has the potential to extend the current equity bull market.

Bonds finally joined the rally as fixed income markets posted strong gains in Q3 in response to a sharp decline in interest rates.

After posting lackluster results in the first half of the year, bond markets, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index, posted a 5.2% gain in the third quarter. Bond markets responded to declining interest rates as inflation pressures continued to abate and most major central banks embarked on a long-awaited easing of monetary policy by cutting interest rates. Most notably, the Fed began its much-anticipated easing cycle with an outsized 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate in September in conjunction with clear communication that they expect to cut rates several more times over the balance of this year and next year.

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

The Fed takes center stage (again) as it embarks on its widely anticipated cycle of interest rate cuts seeking to bring monetary policy to a more balanced posture.

After a multi-year period of rapidly increasing and then maintaining interest rates at elevated levels to combat inflation, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by an outsized 50-basis points in September. More importantly for investors, the Fed strongly signaled that this was the first of what they expect to be several interest rate cuts over the remainder of this year and next year to bring monetary policy to a more balanced level. This proved a strong catalyst for stock and bond markets as lower interest rates coupled with a resilient economy fueled broad-based gains in financial markets.

Has the Fed successfully engineered a historically elusive soft landing for the economy?

The predictions of recession that had dominated the financial headlines in 2023 have all but vanished in 2024. With inflation sharply decelerating and rapidly approaching the Fed’s 2% target level and U.S. economic growth remaining robust, the current evidence points to a high likelihood of a soft landing, which should remain supportive of financial markets in the near term. However, risks remain on the horizon as the ultimate impact of the recent inflationary spike and subsequent sharp tightening in monetary policy engineered by global central banks has likely not yet made its full impact on the economy while financial markets are currently facing elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

What potential risks are on the horizon?

  • While U.S. economic growth remains resilient, there are some signs of cooling in the labor market with the unemployment rate rising (albeit from very low levels) and the number of job openings declining (albeit from elevated levels). Of note, the Fed stated that they are now just as focused on the full employment side of their mandate as they are the stable price side of their mandate.

 

  • While there is currently broad-based consensus that the inflation battle is nearly over, an unexpected reacceleration of inflation would likely prove highly disruptive to financial markets with the scars from the recent bout of inflation still seared into the minds of consumers and investors. While seemingly now a lower probability risk, it has the potential to materially alter the Fed’s plans and would likely lead to a sharp repricing of interest rates and asset prices akin to 2022.

 

  • Elevated geopolitical risk due to an expanding war in the Middle East and the upcoming U.S. presidential election coupled with equity markets, especially in the U.S., trading at historically expensive valuations by most measures leaves financial markets vulnerable on the downside to unexpected events.

 

PERSPECTIVE FOR INVESTORS

The current momentum in the economy and financial markets seems likely to continue in the near term amid resilient economic growth that will likely be further supported by easing monetary policy as inflationary pressures continue to wane. That said, the future remains unknowable, and it is important for investors to remain disciplined and to stay diversified in their investment portfolios to prepare for potential risks. Attempting to time markets has generally proven a fool’s errand historically and we believe it remains so today. As always, we encourage investors to remain engaged with their financial advisors and to make their financial plans living plans.

Discover more from the FCMS Investment Committee by subscribing to our Founders Insights blog and following us on LinkedIn.

 

Authored by the Freedom Capital Management Strategies® Investment Team | October 2024

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor.

This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of Founders Financial Securities, LLC and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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FCMS Market NotesOctober 31 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/fcms-market-notesoctober-31/ Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:47:25 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3675 The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments. Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives. To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information. To […]

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The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments.

Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives.

To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information.

To learn more about FCMS Investment Management, click here.

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC (FFS). Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of FFS, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device. Index information is intended to be indicative of broad market conditions. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investors should consult their financial, tax, and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with FFS. © 2022 Horizon Investments, LLC.

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5 Tips to Clean Up Your Marketing Data https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/5-tips-to-clean-up-your-marketing-data/ Tue, 01 Oct 2024 13:00:08 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3551 Fall and spring cleaning isn’t just for your home anymore. The data we live with also needs a bit of sprucing up too! In today’s data-driven world, maintaining clean and accurate data in your Customer Relationship Management (CRM) system is crucial for the success of your marketing efforts. Clean data ensures that your marketing campaigns […]

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Fall and spring cleaning isn’t just for your home anymore. The data we live with also needs a bit of sprucing up too!

In today’s data-driven world, maintaining clean and accurate data in your Customer Relationship Management (CRM) system is crucial for the success of your marketing efforts. Clean data ensures that your marketing campaigns are targeted, personalized, and effective, leading to higher engagement, better conversion rates, and frankly just more personalized and tailored messaging.

Here are some key strategies to keep your CRM data clean.

Strategies for Keeping Your CRM Data Clean

  1. Conduct Regular Data Audits 🔎

Conduct regular audits to identify and correct inaccuracies, duplicates, and outdated information. This helps maintain the integrity of your data and ensures that your marketing efforts are based on accurate information. Make it part of your standard operating procedures to do at least twice per year.

 

  1. Standardize Data Entry 💻

Implement standardized data entry procedures to ensure consistency. This includes using predefined formats for names, addresses, and other critical fields. Stay relentlessly consistent!

 

  1. Automate Data Cleaning 🧹

Utilize automated tools and software to clean your data. These tools can help identify and merge duplicate records, validate email addresses, and update outdated information.

 

  1. Train Your Team on Good Data Hygiene 🪥

Ensure that your team is well-trained in data entry best practices. Regular training sessions can help prevent common data entry errors and promote a culture of data accuracy. It might sound boring in the here and now but long-term everyone will be happy with a clean and organized system of record!

 

  1. Use Data Validation Tools ⚒

Implement data validation tools that can check for errors in real-time as data is entered into the CRM. This helps catch mistakes early and will help you maintain data quality.

 

The Growing Importance of First-Party Data

As privacy regulations tighten, and third-party cookies become less reliable, first-party data is becoming a critical asset for marketers. First-party data is information collected directly from your prospects and clients through interactions on your website, social media, and other owned channels.

Here’s why it’s becoming more important:

  1. Privacy Compliance

First-party data is collected with the consent of your clients, making it compliant with privacy regulations in the U.S., such as CCPA, and even international standards from GDPR. This reduces the risk of legal issues and builds trust with your audience.

 

  1. Accuracy and Relevance

First-party data is highly accurate and relevant because it comes directly from your clients. This allows for more precise targeting and personalization in your marketing campaigns.

 

  1. Ownership and Control

Unlike third-party data, which can be affected by changes in external policies and technologies, first-party data is owned and controlled by your organization. This gives you greater flexibility and reliability in your marketing efforts.

 

  1. Enhanced Insights

First-party data provides deeper insights into client behavior and preferences. This enables you to create more effective marketing strategies and improve client experiences.

 

Keeping your CRM data clean is essential for effective marketing. As the landscape of data privacy and third-party cookies evolves, leveraging first-party data will become increasingly important. By focusing on data accuracy and utilizing first-party data, you can enhance your marketing efforts and build stronger relationships with your client relationships.

 

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Copyright © 2024 Founders Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC and Registered Investment Adviser. All Rights Reserved.

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FCMS Market Notes September 19, 2024 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/fcms-market-notes-september-19-2024/ Thu, 19 Sep 2024 17:15:35 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3539 The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments. Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Notes >> To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information. […]

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The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments.

Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Notes >>

To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information.

To learn more about FCMS Investment Management, click here.

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC (FFS). Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of FFS, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device. Index information is intended to be indicative of broad market conditions. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investors should consult their financial, tax, and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with FFS. © 2022 Horizon Investments, LLC.

The post FCMS Market Notes<br> September 19, 2024 appeared first on Founders Financial.

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FCMS Market NotesAugust 29, 2024 https://foundersfinancial.com/founders-insights/fcms-market-notesaugust-29-2024/ Thu, 29 Aug 2024 12:40:28 +0000 https://foundersfinancial.com/?p=3522 The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments. Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives. To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information. To […]

The post FCMS Market Notes<br>August 29, 2024 appeared first on Founders Financial.

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The FCMS Investment Committee is pleased to share the latest insights on the current financial market and economic developments.

Click here to read this week’s FCMS Market Perspectives.

To receive weekly updates from the FCMS Investment Committee, please subscribe to our blog and follow us on our social media channels for the latest information.

To learn more about FCMS Investment Management, click here.

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC (FFS). Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of FFS, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device. Index information is intended to be indicative of broad market conditions. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investors should consult their financial, tax, and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with FFS. © 2022 Horizon Investments, LLC.

The post FCMS Market Notes<br>August 29, 2024 appeared first on Founders Financial.

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